Which term describes when a system is usable for its intended purpose?

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(i) the environmental impact of the proposed action,

(ii) any adverse environmental effects which cannot be avoided should the proposal be implemented,

(iii) alternatives to the proposed action,

(iv) the relationship between local short-term uses of man's environment and the maintenance and enhancement of long-term productivity, and

(v) any irreversible and irretrievable commitments of resources which would be involved in the proposed

action should it be implemented. The Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) is responsible for overseeing the process of drawing up 102 Statements and for reviewing them. Pursuant to Executive Order 11514, the CEQ has established Guidelines on Environmental Impact Statements (36 Fed. Reg. 7724–7729, April 23, 1971); and it has overseen the issuance of the procedures used by Federal agencies to implement Section 102 (36 Fed. Reg. 23666, Dec. 11, 1971). Revised Proposed Guidelines for the Preparation of Environmental Impact Statements were published in the Federal Register (10856-10866, May 2, 1973).

In early 1972 some ten reports per day were being received by the CEQ, about half from the Department of Transportation concerning airports and highways. The CEQ checks the reports for compliance with NEPA, identifies problem areas for possible correction, and monitors significant or controversial actions.

Through the 102 Statements, NEPA is established as an information mechanism: it requires systematic comprehensive consideration of environmental implications of actions, evaluation of alternatives, and the development of in-house expertise. The requirements of NEPA, including in particular the adequacy of the 102 Statements, have been upheld by the courts.

These statements are circulated in draft form to other agencies for comment, and also are made public. A catalog of 102 Statements is prepared monthly by the CEO and is called the “102 Monitor.”

EXTERNALITIES (Also, EXTERNAL EFFECTS) This term can be defined in at least three ways: as an economic term, as an element of communications theory, or as a factor relating to social systems. Economically speaking, externalities are costs or benefits not taken into account in a transaction or system of transactions. In this usage, the right of an industry to pollute a stream (i.e., a "free good”) when it is not charged against the cost of doing business would be an Externality. In Communications Theory, an Externality is an aspect of the operation of a system that generates no Feedback' (9.v.). As applied to social systems, an Externality is an aspect of changed environmental stress that has not been perceived or has not motivated an adaptive adjustment of the organism or social system.

FACSIMILE (FACSIMILE TRANSMISSION) The transmission of a fixed image, like a photograph, handwriting, map, or drawing, by wire or radio. Most facsimile equipment in the

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Group on New Concepts of Science Policy—the “Brooks Report” (Paris: Organisation for Cooperation and Development, March 28, 1971).

HARDWARE Originally, tools and other household, farm, and repair items. With the advent of the computer, the term has come to mean the computer itself and its associated equipment, like control consoles, memory units, key-sort and card-punch equipment, tape recording and drive equipment, print-out units, and telecommunications terminal and transmission equipment. Computer hardware is distinguished from the programming procedures used to operate it. These are called "Software" (q.v.).

HEURISTIC (adjective) According to Webster's Third New International Dictionary, "Heuristic" refers to an approach "valuable for stimulating or conducting empirical [9.v.] research but unproved or incapable of proof-often used of arguments, methods, or constructs that assume or postulate what remains to be proven or that lead a person to find out for himself."

HEURISTICS (noun) The study of the mental processes and stages involved in solving problems, including the perception of the problem, obtaining relevant information, a passive period of waiting for insight, and the solution of the problem, or insight.

HOLISTIC (adjective) An approach to research, analysis, or other activities characterized by' an emphasis on completeness or wholeness; opposed to the atomistic approach. It is related to the synergistic approach with its emphasis on the organic or functional relationship of the whole to its parts, and on the whole as being greater than the sum of its parts.

See Synergistic Effect (s).

In biological usage, the term refers to a tendency of organisms to maintain uniformity or stability. For example, the human body normally maintains its internal temperature at about 98.6° F. The term has been applied by analogy to the maintenance by any system of a steady state condition of dynamic equilibrium.

IMPACT (AS IN IMPACT ANALYSIS, TECHNOLOGICAL IMPACT, ETC.)

For one formal statement of the scope of this term, see Environmental Impact Statements. However, the term is far from precise in most usages. The recognition of impacts tends to be a progressive, repetitive process because the impacts on man and his environment from any given technology, process, or system appear to be almost limitless. Some impacts are quantifiable, and some not. Various kinds

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INNOVATION 13 Compare Invention.

Innovation is a term used to signify either the product of a complex series of activities, or the process itself. It includes (1) a perception of a problem or opportunity, perhaps using Exploratory Forecasting (see Forecasting, Exploratory); (2) a "first conception' or invention of an original idea; (3) a succession of interwoven steps of research, development, engineering, design, market analysis, and management decisionmaking; and (4) a “first realization” of “culmination" when an industrially successful thing—a product, industrial procedure, or technique—is first used in an economic, industrial, or social context (vertical transfer of technology), and perhaps also the adoption of the process or manufacture of the product by others in competition (diffusion or lateral transfer of technology).

Although sometimes used to signify the process itself, the word is also used as a modifier, in the term "innovative process.

Innovation, according to one view, should not be confused with: (1) scientific discovery, although relevant discoveries may be incorporated in an innovation; (2) invention, although an invention frequently provides the initial concept leading to an innovation; or (3) marginal improvement in an existing product, process, or technique. However, how much more than marginal an innovation ought to be to qualify as a true innovation is hard to determine.

Many inventions or new scientific or technological ideas do not go through the entire complex of activities from conception to culmination; many are abandoned at intermediate steps. Only those that go through the entire process and emerge as new and useful commercial products, processes, or techniques can be accurately termed innovations.

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dB House party, 4-piece rock band_

115 Pneumatic hammer, 6 ft away-

108 Walking near a helicopter.

104 Outside, jet taking off at airport

102 Train stopping in station -

100 Pushing a power lawn mower_

96 At a seat in subway, windows open.

95 Inside a jet airplane on take-off.

94 Screaming child..

92 Sports car running in street--

86 Garbage truck, 200 ft away

85 Inside a city bus.

85 Traffic at a residential intersection..

82 Large office.--

60 Long-term exposure to noise levels above 80 dB may cause hearing impairment; at about 130 to 140 dB, noise will become painful.

Noise pollution can be abated by quieting the source itself, enclosing the source, isolating or damping vibrations caused by the source, absorbing the noise in soundproofing materials, and protecting persons with ear protection devices.

This important adjective encompasses all values, value orientations, and value-motivated activities. In contradistinction to the scientific method, which aspires to be value-free, any normative procedure or activity concentrates on the assigning of social values. It is the distinction made by Hume between “is" and "ought”. Thus, normative forecasting of technology represents an attempt to identify what kinds of innovation will be needed (i.e., what society will desire or ought to have) by some future date. Normative analysis attempts to determine what is good or bad; science characterizses what happens and why.

NORMATIVE FORECASTING

This is a form of forecasting in which the starting point is not the question of feasibility but rather a determination as to what option might be of social value at some future time. Thus

When the forecast is "needs oriented”, it is termed "normative." In the normative forecast, goals, needs, objectives, or desires are specified, and the forecast works backward to the present to see what capabilities now exist or could be extrapolated to meet future goals. In some cases the goal may even force technology. Indeed, the remoteness of the goals and the priority they have may well determine how many concurrent

approaches are pursued to meet the goal.20 The author adds: “Normative forecasting probably should be called ‘goal oriented planning?.” On this last point, a respondent comments: Actually, it is difficult to imagine planning that is not goal-oriented."

20 Bright, Technical Forecasting for Government and Industry, op. cit., p. 165. See especially Marvin J. Cetron and Thomas I. Monahan, "An Evaluation and Appraisal of Various Approaches to Technological Forecasting," in this text.

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Viewing Policy as the complex of principles that govern action toward given ends, Policy Analysis includes such matters as the examination of the adjudication of laws, statements of leaders, agency documents, legislation and laws, and position papers from the private sector, for the purposes of evaluating goals, means, processes, objectives, achievements, and intentions; it seeks from this analysis to formulate guidance for management of government programs, use of resources, and control of human behavior. The analysis of policy encompasses: conflicts among policies, internal consistencies, impacts on society and its environment, political consequences, problems of administrative implementation, institutional and organizational aspects, problems of coordination, determining of relative priorities, timetables for action in programming, and evaluation and overview requirements.

Yehezkel Dror has defined Policy Analysis as "an approach and methodology for design and identification of preferable alternatives in respect to complex policy issues. Policy analysis provides heuristic aid to better policymaking, without any presumption to provide optimization algorithms." 26

POLICY SCIENCE (S) (In this usage, Science(s) is the noun and Policy the adjective.)

Both Science and Policy are separately defined (q.v.). In general, Policy Sciences can be derived from the coupling of these two definitions. However, the term is relatively new, and subject to considerable interpretation. It appears mainly to encompass (1) an understanding of the process by which are evolved broad principles useful in institutional problem-solving activities, and (2) the kinds of knowledge (both scientific disciplines and value systems) useful in the application of the process to particular conditions, circumstances, or problems. According to Lasswell,27 "The policy sciences may be conceived as knowledge of the policy process and of the relevance of knowledge in the process.” Later on in this reference, he explains that the field is "contextual" and "problem-oriented.” It appears also to be an attempt to introduce normative values into the decision process in a systematic

The concept of Pollution involves changes affecting the quality of life or resources. Usually, the term implies a judgment of degradation.

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ess is essentially a political one, it can be illuminated by the continuous assembling and analyzing of statistical data on the nature and capability of the economy and the objectives and needs of the Nation.

Program budgeting [i.e., PPBS] provides such an approach. It focuses on the decision-making process, particularly on the problems of data and analysis. Its first effort is simply the rational ordering of inputs and outputs, in which the initial emphasis is on the identifiable outputs--major objectives of Government processes. It then attempts to order the inputs—Government activities produced by manpower, material, real estate--so that comparisons among wide ranges of alter

natives are feasible and meaningful.

[PPBS] starts with the structuring of the problem and ends with analysis of the data. Among the analytical tools, cost-benefit or costutility analysis that compares benefit or utility (outputs) with resources or costs (inputs) is a most prominent one. Since the objective is to improve the decision making that occurs in real life, and not in the philosopher's fancy, [PPBS) pays special attention to questions of organization and administration, and the politics and pressures of the workaday world.31

“... The contribution of comprehensive planning programming, and budgeting system is ... in the conceptually simple yet operationally difficult task of (1) identifying the over-riding objectives of the organization; (2) developing an array of feasible alternatives for achieving them; (3) systematically choosing from among the alternatives; and (4) converting the results into operational decisions.” 32 According to this author, the basic concepts of PPBS are as follows:

Planning. The study of objectives, of alternative ways of achieving objectives, of future environments, and of contingencies and how to respond to them. The purpose of planning is to explore alternatives, to stimulate ideas about tradeoffs and management strategies, to identify problems, to formulate theories, and, of course, to generate data.

Programming.--A method or system of describing activities according to objectives or "outputs”... and of relating these objectives to the costs or "inputs” needed to produce the outputs.

Budgeting.—The activity through which funds are requested, appropriated, apportioned, and accounted for. 33 Jay Mendell writes:

Planning is the broad process of setting objectives and goals for the Department of Defense and its component parts, taking into account the current and projected world environment. These objectives and goals must, of course, be made in concert with national objectives. Generally, planning is concerned with what we want to do and can reasonably hope to achieve, whereas programming is the much more specific process of allocating resources among alternatives and appraising

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Rothschild identifies five synonyms for "pure research" as follows: basic science, fundamental research, pure basic research, basic research, and absolutely pure research. However, he urges the use of Pure Research as the preferred form. This he defines as "research done solely to increase knowledge, without any practical application in view

Under "miscellaneous," Rothschild includes as terms for definition: self-chosen research, curiosity-oriented research, speculative research, and general research (surcharge). The first two terms are, he says, synonymous and too broad in scope to be useful. The second two are partial synonyms and have a specialized institutional significance which he judges not very useful. (They have to do with "research which may be pure

or applied and which is not directly concerned with an applied research programme, though done by the same research group, organization, or laboratory.”)

RESEARCH, APPLIED Systematic application of information, systematically acquired and validated. In particular, Applied Research is the practical application of such knowledge or understanding for the purpose of meeting a recognized need to develop a capability, employing the methods and data of Science (q.v.). It is distinguished from Development (q.v.) in that it does not extend to the design or construction of working processes or hardware. As used by the National Science Foundation, the term means:

[Research directed] toward practical application of knowl-
edge--it covers ‘research projects' which represent investiga-
tions directed to discovery of new scientific knowledge and
which have specific commercial objectives with respect to either products or processes. By this definition, applied re- search in industry differs from basic research chiefly in terms

of objectives of the reporting company.41 For a useful collection of essays on the subject, see Applied Science and Technological Progress, Report to the Committee on Science and Astronautics, U.S. House of Representatives, by the National Academy of Sciences, June 1967.

In his article (c.f. Research) on "Forty-five Varieties of Research (and Development)," Lord Rothschild identifies 33 different terms for Applied Research. He presents them in an introductory list, and then proceeds to evaluate them out of consideration.42 Those that remain, all subsumed under “Applied Research” are defined as follows:

Strategic Research. Research undertaken to generate specific applied programs.

u National Science Foundation, National Pattern of R. & D, Resources, 1953–71, NSF 70-46 (1971), pp. 24-25.

49 His list includes : absolutely applied research, commissioned research, mission-oriented research, objective-oriented research and development, orientated [U.S. oriented] research, product-oriented research, tactical science, target research, applied (project) research, applied (operational) [U.S. operations) research, short-term "troubleshooting” research, esploratory research, product research, process research, method of operation research, operational (U.S. operations) research, strategic research, objective basic research, basic strategic research, target basic research, targeted basic research, basic applied research, applied basic research, strategic applied research, oriented-strategic research, and underlying research.

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controlled more definitely than basic or applied research. And thus, as the results of development go into production, definite products are produced and more definite planning and control can be managed." 49

RESEARCH, MISSION-ORIENTED (OR, MISSION-ORIENTED SCIENCE)

Loosely, any Applied Research (see Research, Applied) although it

may also be used to cover certain basic research activities (or activities in "Fundamental Science") deemed pertinent. The term is particularly associated with scientific research to provide information or capabilities needed to support the development of a system or to support a program. In other words, “Mission-Oriented" signifies that the research is directed and constrained by the goals and rules of some organizational entity and its mission.

According to one respondent, the term "fast-transit research” is sometimes used in Europe as synonymous with Mission Oriented Research, implying that the results of the research should be rapidly applicable to improve the efficiency of civil or military systems.

RESEARCH, PURE Loosely, a term synonymous with Basic Research or Fundamental Research (see Research, Basic and Research, Fundamental). There is a tendency to associate the term Pure Research with the exclusive intent to expand knowledge and understanding of the physical universe.

RESOURCE RECOVERY A concept signifying the recovery, for additional use, of resources already utilized at least once. The term Resource (q.v.) is generally taken to include all kinds of material resources as well as energy resources which, if not recovered, would go to waste. Included, for example, is the conversion of municipal solid waste to useful purposes, as well as the thermal use of heated waste water effluent from nuclear power plants for the heating of offices and homes. Impetus was given to the concept by passage of the Resource Recovery Act of 1970 (Public Law 91-512) which aimed at shifting national solid waste management activities from disposal to recovery and reuse. Closely related is the concept of Resource Conservation (q.v.), defined as the judicious use of resources to avoid their waste and prevent their premature depletion. Included within the concept is the more restricted concept of Recycling (q.v.). See also Materials Management.

In general, resources encompass all means or potential means toward ends or potential ends. They can include physical inputs, people (and their levels of training), information, institutional arrangements, available financial assets and credit, etc.

In comment on this term, one respondent suggested that attention should be called to the variety of ways in which resources are categorized: as exploitable and potential, economic or uneconomic under a given level of technological capability, and as tangible and intangible (e.g., scenery). The concept of extractable value versus free good (e.g., air) is also involved in the term.

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other goals, having some coherence within itself across the

functions that it serves." With the increasing significance of science and technology for public interests and goals, there has arisen a large number of institutes, associations, and university programs investigating and publishing on this theme. (See D. Schooler, Science, Scientists, and Public Policy, New York, The Free Press, 1971.) Also, with the large sums provided to the scientific enterprise by the "public patron," there has been increasing attention to various aspects of science and government with regard to the methods of support, areas of support, institutions for support, etc. Both the legislative and executive branches of Government have been searching for answers to the various issues involved, and recently State and local government attention has been drawn to the issues. See U.S. Cong., House, Comm. on Science and Astronautics, National Science Policy, (H. Con. Res. 666), Hearings before the Subcomm. on Science, Research, and Development, 91st Cong., 1st sess. (Washington, U.S. Government Printing Office, 1970).

SCIENCE (S), Social (Also, BEHAVIORAL SCIENCE (s)) “The objectives of basic and applied behavioral and social science are essentially the same as those of other sciences: the scientific method is used to establish a body of fact and theory, demonstrable and communicable, that contributes to knowledge and understanding that will permit man to manage his affairs with greater rationality." 55 The object of study is human behavior; differentiations are usually drawn along the following lines:

The unit of analysis in behavioral science is the individual. The unit of analysis in social science is aggregates of individuals in formal and informal social groupings and insti

tutions. While biological scientists examine animate physiological and environmental factors which may effect changes in patterns of individual behavior, behavioral scientists (e.g., psychologists, anthropologists, and psychiatrists) focus upon inanimate mental factors or real or perceived environmental or social factors which cause patterns of behavior in the individual and groupings of individuals as a consequence of social, cultural, economic, or political arrangements, beliefs, traditions, institutions and opportunities. Such social sciences include economics, sociology, political science and history.

In the conduct of Science (q.v.), the product sought is knowledge. The problem is how to validate what is known. The convention adopted

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in comparison with costs incurred by the community in eliminating pollution caused by the firm.

Various combinations of these two types of social audits are being explored.

SOCIAL COSTS

See Externalities (also, External Effects) and Risk/Benefit Analysis.

SOCIAL INDICATORS (Also, SOCIAL ACCOUNTING SYSTEM) In a seminal work on this subject, Professor Raymond A. Bauer described Social Indicators operationally as "statistics, statistical series, and all other forms of evidence that enable us to assess where we stand and are going with respect to our values and goals, and to evaluate specific programs and determine their impact." 67

Subsequently, a definition prepared in the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare by M. Olson, emphasizing how social indicators would differ from currently collected statistics, read as follows:

A social indicator *** may be defined to be a statistic of direct normative interest which facilitates concise, comprehensive and balanced judgments about the condition of major aspects of a society. It is in all cases a direct measure of welfare and is subject to the interpretation that, if it changes in the "right" direction, while other things remain equal, things have gotten better, or people are "better off.” Thus statistics on the number of doctors or policemen could not be social in

dicators whereas figures on health or crime rates could be.65 The H.E.W. definition has been criticized on two counts: first, on the basis that to provide social guidance on action programs, a social indicator system should measure both inputs and outputs—in other words, both quantity of medical care and qualitative health conditions should be dealt with; and second, that indicators should be developed with reference to a model or models of society itself.

Conceptually, Social Indicators would be used for policy and program guidance in a way similar to the use of reports of the Council of Economic Advisers. One legislative proposal to provide suc tem calls for a Council of Social Advisers.

According to Kenneth C. Land of the Russell Sage Foundation, “three recurring claims for social indicators arising from the exigencies of public policy decisions are that social indicators can help (1) to evaluate specfic programs, (2) to develop a balance sheet or system of social accounts, and (3) to set goals and priorities."

I propose (continues Land] that the term social indicators refer to social statistics that (1) are components in a social system model (including sociopsychological, economic, demographic, and ecological) or of some particular segment or process thereof, (2) can be collected and analyzed at various times and accumulated into a time-series, and (3) can be ag

64 Raymond A. Bauer, ed., Social Indicators (Cambridge, Mass. : M.I.T. Press, 1966). p. 1.

15 U.Š. Department of Health, Education, and Welfare, "Toward a Social Report" (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1969).

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measurement-more or less in concert-of several elements or parameters can provide important insights. These are Synoptic Measurements; they contribute to interpretation of scientific events and influence research policy.

SYNTHESIS

Almost the antonym of Analysis (q.v.). Used in its basic "combining" sense, e.g., the assembly of often varied and diverse ideas, forces, or factors into one coherent and consistent whole.

This term involves the idea of complex, interrelated elements or components working effectively together in harmony to yield a single desired result. A Rand Corporation research memorandum defines "system" as "a set of interrelated factors that are used together to produce an output.” 72

Most systems also involve communications from a central control point, governing the operation of subsystems and reporting back to the control point, at which operating decisions are made (so that the system possesses the capability of self-adjustment or self-correction). See Feedback.

According to one student: “A system is a set of objects with relationships between the objects and between their attributes." He continues :

Objects are simply the parts or components of a system, and these parts are unlimited in variety. Systems may consist of atoms, stars, switches, springs, wires, bones, neurons, genes, gases, mathematical variables, equations, laws, and processes.

Attributes are properties of objects. For example, in the preceding cases the objects listed have (among others) the following attributes:

stars—temperature, distances from other stars switches-speed of operation, state springs—spring tension, displacement

wirestensile strength, electrical resistance Relationships tie the system together. In fact, the many kinds of relationships (causal, logical, random, etc.) make the notion of "system” useful.

For any given set of objects, it is impossible to say that no interrelationships exist since, for example, for a particular physical system, one could always consider as relationships the distances between pairs of the objects. The relationships to be considered in the context of a given set of objects depend on the problem at hand, important or interesting relationships being included trivial or unessential relationships excluded. The decision as to which relationships are important and which trivial is up to the person dealing with the problem. ...78

One simple and useful definition is:“: . a goal-oriented enterprise.” (The definition continues) :

9 Joseph A. Kershaw and Roland N. McKean, “Systems Analysis and Education." Rand Research Memorandum RM-2473 (Oct. 30, 1959), p. 2.

T3 A. D. Hall, A Methodology for Systems Engineering (New York, Van Nostrand, 1962),

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sociology and other behavioral sciences, and any other rational human actions toward intended results.80

It is hard to distinguish the boundary lines between basic and applied science and technology. The point is that both basic and applied science are a part of technology. Thus, basic science is an information function; and applied science is an information function with a useful purpose in mind; while technology is the development and social use of information. A great deal of technological innovation, over the years, came into being without the aid of science; and conversely, a great deal of the information uncovered by science has not found useful application but is still judged as potentially useful, or as the basis for useful understanding,

A distinction can be drawn between technology as a process and as a product. One author suggests: "Technology-as-process is those patterns of action by which man transforms knowledge of his environment into an instrument of control over that environment for the purpose of meeting human needs. Technology-as-product is understood as comprising the range of tools, machines, procedures, etc., produced as results of technological action.”' 1

A respondent observes that the word "Technology" has very strong emotional connotations for some people, who read into it notions about “the Establishment,” “Free Enterprise,” “Excessive Rationality," "Big Business," "the Military-Industrial Complex," and others. He observes: “You can't overlook, in your Glossary, these secondary meanings.”

An interesting trend in the meaning of Technology is revealed by a comparison of the definitions in the Merriam-Webster 2nd and 3rd cditions. In the 2nd edition, the word is defined:

1. Industrial science; the science or systematic knowledge of the industrial arts, esp. of the more important manufactures,

as spinning, weaving, metalurgy, etc.

2. Terminology used in arts, sciences, or the like.

3. Any practical art utilizing scientific knowlege, as horticulture or medicine; applied science contrasted with pure science.

4. Anthropol. Ethnotechnics. Contrast this definition with that in the Merrian-Webster 3rd edition, which is as follows:

1. The terminology of a particular subject: technical language

2. a: the science of the application of knowledge to practical purposes : applied science (the great American achievement has been less in science itself than in ---- and engineeringMax Lerner) b(1): the application of scientific knowledge to practical purposes in a particular field (studies are also made of polymeric materials to dental -----Report: Nat'l Bureau of Standards) (2): a technical method of achieving a practical purpose

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distinguished two different kinds of Technology Assessment: probleminitiated and technology-initiated assessments. These were:

1. Assessments directed to the solution of identified problems of society which are usually amenable to systems analysis for their solution; and

2. Assessments to enable society to cope with the unfolding chain of cause-and-effect relationships stemming from a new

technology. It has been suggested that to these should be added two other kinds of Technology Assessment. These are:

1. Policy-oriented studies; and

2. Studies undertaken (usually in an academic environment) for the purpose of developing an assessment methodology, rather

than as an input to decision-making.85 The author of this glossary is not persuaded of the validity of these last two additions, however, because the first ought to be the product of all assessments, and the second yields no substantive assessment at all.

In the Report of the President's National Goals staff, a chapter was devoted to the subject of Technology Assessment. In it was presented a further definition, as follows:

A systematic planning or forecasting process that delineates options and costs, encompassing economic, environmental, and social considerations (both external and internal) and with special focus on technology-related "bad," as well

as “good," etl'ects.86 Out of these definitions emerges a concept of a purposeful and iterative search for significant secondary consequences and side effects (the “total impact”) of a technology; identifying affected parties; evaluating the social, environmental, and cultural impacts; considering feasible technological alternatives; and revealing constructive opportunities; with the intent of managing technology more effectively to achieve societal goals. The process is a neutral and objective structuring of information about tradeoffs, priorities, options, and alternatives, to promote effectiveness in management decisions in the control and use of technology—not only in the present but for an indeterminate future.

It is essential that the process not be confused with the decision process, but rather that it be recognized as an input to it. This point was elaborated in Technical Information for Congress in the passage

di For a more detailed description, see “The Future of Technology Assessment in Policy Formulation" by Walter A. Hahn, in Technology A8888sment in a Dynamic Environment, J. J. Cetron, B. Bartocha, and C. Ralph (eds.), New York, Gordon and Breach, (currently in press). Haho offers the further explanation as follows: "Policy-oriented TA'is of major interest to the legislative and, to some extent, executive branches of the several levels of government. Assessments to determine the impact of old, new, or proposed technological structures, products, or processes are more usually associated with industrial or government regulatory agencies. Problem. or issue-oriented TAs arise from the feeling that 'something is going wrong,' often articulated by industrial citizens, groups, or public-interest organizations. This has been referred to as 'people's technology assessment.'

. . PersoDB in academic and not-for-profit organizations emphasize the conceptual and methodological aspects of TA and push for the development of the techniques, quality assurance, and objectivity so necessary for the viability of TA.

88 National Goals Research Staff, "Toward Balanced Growth," op. cit.

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is typically determined by subjecting a test population, like rats, to toxic substances and extrapolating the results to humans based upon the amount of lethal toxins given to, and the body weights of, the test population.

TRADE-OFF (noun, verb) Foregoing some portion of one benefit in order to achieve some increased portion of another benefit; (or) foregoing some portion of a benefit in order to achieve a reduction in some portion of a cost; (or) accepting an increased portion of one cost in order to achieve a decrease

a in the portion of another cost. Other more complicated permutations of this concept can be suggested. The term is in wide usage.

The principle that the maximization of private gain will, in some cases, not be regulated by a device like the "invisible hand" of Adam Smith, which typically serves as a natural self-regulator of economic activity

The “Tragedy of the Commons” alludes to a situation in which each of several herdsmen seeks to maximize his gain by adding cattle to a common pasture. A herdsman could rationalize and justify his action in adding one animal to the commons on the basis that he would receive all the benefit of the additional animal while the detrimental effects of overgrazing caused by his action would be shared equally by all the herdsmen. In this type of situation, some form of govermental regulation might be required to prevent the economic ruin of those who share the commons. The principle of the Tragedy of the Commons is found in many societal problems, like environmental pollution and overpopulation, particularly those involving any “free or common good or service, like air, water, procreation, and sometimes land.

This principle was first propounded by William Forster Lloyd in 1833. Professor Garrett Hardin of the University of California at Santa Barbara has recently expanded upon Lloyd's work and given the principle its name. 92

TRANSNATIONAL CORPORATION

See Multinational Corporation.

A form of forecasting in which the assumption is made that the rate of time-dependent change of a phenomenon will continue in the future at the same level as in the past. For example, electric power generating capacity in the United States has approximately doubled every decade since 1920. Trend extrapolation would predict that it will continue to double over each future decade. Such a simplistic approach, of course, ignores the fact that the rate of increase of electric power in its infancy was not this fast, and that future change may level off or even decrease. (Comments a respondent: [Trend Extrapolation] has the

A2 Garrett Hardin, "The Tragedy of the Commons," Science, vol. 162, Dec. 13, 1968, pp. 1243-1248.

same problem as Delphi in the case of complex nonlinear feedback systems and can give highly misleading results for the same reason.) Graphically, the rate of change that begins slowly and increases to a sustained maximum rate before leveling out (becoming asymptotic to a horizontal line) is represented by an "S-Curve”; trend extrapolation, which cannot predict at what point in time (and for what reasons) the second knee in the S-Curve will be reached, simply ignores this subtlety by assuming that no knee exists. Similar difficulties are encountered in attempts to apply trend extrapolation to other phenomena exhibiting other forms of behavior.

The word "Tribology" was coined by a British committee in 1966 from the word "tribos," which means "rubbing” in classic Greek. It may be defined as the science and technology of the interaction of material surfaces in relative motion. It is concerned with every aspect of operating hardware and equipment in which the relative motion of surfaces is involved and thus covers a wide range of phenomena. Tribology encompasses, essentially as an integrated system, the many facets of friction, lubrication, wear, bearing phenomena, hydrodynamics, fluid mechanics, surface sciences, and many classical disciplines like chemistry and physics. Tribology constitutes an interdisciplinary approach to these fields and to related design and engineering problems.

VALUE(S) Desired functions. They may be expressed in many ways. Economic values are expressed in monetary terms. Parts of systems are evaluated in relevant parametric numbers. Social values can sometimes be quantified. (Cf. Social Indicators and Externalities.) Normative (q.v.) values are general social, ethical, cultural, or esthetic "goods” not subject to quantification.

Acronyms and Abbreviations of Organizations Frequently Appearing in Science Policy Literature.

(81)

Page 16

Organizations

Related to AAAS-American Association for the Advancement of Science.

AAAS was founded in 1848 to further the work and cooperation of scientists, and to improve the public understanding and the effectiveness of the role of science in promoting human welfare. The AAAS is involved in improving the quality of science education, a Foreign Scientists Program, and publishing scienti

fic information. AEC—Atomic Energy Commission (also USAEC)--

U.S. Government The AEC, created by the Atomic Energy Act of 1946, is responsible for developing atomic energy technology for defense and industrial uses and for regulations to ensure safe use of muclear processes. Some of the activities that AEC is involved with are: procurement of adequate stocks of raw materials, development and storage of nuclear weapons, and technical support of U.S. efforts toward achieving international control of atomic

energy. AID— Agency for International Development (also USAID)-

Department of State The Agency for International Development (AID) was established by State Department Delegation of Authority 104 to encourage and support efforts by the developing countries to meet the fundamental needs of their people for sufficient food, good health, and employment. AID carries out development assistance programs overseas designed to promote the economic and social

modernization of developing countries. ANL-Argonne National Laboratory-------- U.S. Atomic Energy

Commission This major research center's program includes fundamental and applied research and engineering development. While the basic orientation of much of the Laboratory's effort has traditionally been reactor development, there has been increasing emphasis on

high-energy physics. ARS-Agricultural Research Service----Department of Agriculture

The ARS was established by the Secretary of Agriculture in 1953 to furnish the technology and knowledge that is necessary for the farmer to produce efficiently, conserve the environment, and meet the food and fiber needs of the country. Research is conducted in such fields as plant science, entomology, and soil

sciences. ARPA—Advanced Research Projects Agency-- --- See DARPA

Page 17

FA0—Food and Agriculture Organisation.. --- United Nations

FAO was established in 1945 to improve the efficiency of the production and distribution of all food and agricultural products, to raise the levels of nutrition and standards of living of people, and to better the conditions of rural populations. Some of the activities that FAO is involved in are: the collection, analysis, and dissemination of technical and scientific information; the organization of international meetings; and the provision of technical assistance to developing countries. FCC-Federal Communications Commission.----- U.S. Government

The Federal Communications Commission was created by the Communications Act of 1934 to regulate interstate and foreign communications by wire and radio. Some illustrative areas of concern include: broadcasting, cable television, and safety and special radio services. FCST-Federal Council for Science and Technology

National Science Foundation The Council was established by Executive Order 10807 in 1959 to promote better cooperation among Federal agencies, to facilitate resolution of common problems, to improve planning and management in science and technology, and to advise and assist the President regarding Federal programs affecting more than one agency. FDA-Food and Drug Administration ---- Department of Health

Education, and

Welfare The name “Food and Drug Administration" was first provided by the Agriculture Appropriation Act of 1931, although similar lawenforcement functions had been carried on under different organizational titles since 1907.

FDA's activities are directed toward protecting the public health of the Nation. FDA is concerned with such matters as product safety, drugs, veterinary medicine, radiological health, and safety of foods. FPC_Federal Power Commission.-..

U.S. Government The FPC, originally operated under the Federal Water Power Act of 1920, regulates interstate aspects of the electric power and natural gas industries. Some of the Commission's activities include: issuing permits and licenses, and regulating rates and transactions in electric power and natural gas. GAC—General Advisory Committee..

U.S. Atomic Energy

Commission A statutory committee consisting of nine members appointed by the President, whose function is to advise the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission on scientific and technical matters relating to materials, production, and research and development. GA0—General Accounting Office--

U.S. Congress The General Accounting Office was created by the Budget and Accounting Act in 1921 to assist the Congress in providing legislative control over the receipt, disbursement, and application of public funds.

Page 18

OST-Office of Science and Technology

Executive Office of

the President The Office of Science and Technology was created by the Reorganization Plan 2 of 1962.

The Director of the Office of Science and Technology provides advice and assistance to the President with respect to developing policies and evaluating and coordinating programs to assure that science and technology are used most effectively in the interests of national security and general welfare.

This assignment is accomplished in four main ways:

1. Evaluation of major policies, plans, and programs of science and technology of the various agencies of the Federal Government;

2. Assessment of selected scientific and technical developments and programs;

3. Review, integration, and coordination of major Federal activities in science and technology; and

4. Assuring that close relations exist with the Nation's scientific and engineering communities.

Reorganization Plan No. 1 of 1973 abolished OST. OTA--Office of Technology Assessment.

U.S. Congress OTA was created by Public Law 92-484 in 1972 to provide early indications on the probable impacts of the application of technology. It is instructed to identify alternative technological methods of implementing programs and present findings of completed analyses to the appropriate legislative authorities. PAHO—Pan American Health Organization - Organization of

American States PAHO was organized in 1958 on the foundations of other international organizations that had functioned from 1902 on. The purposes of this organization are to coordinate and to promote the efforts of the countries of the Western Hemisphere to lengthen life, combat disease, and improve the physical and mental health of the people.

The activities of PAHO related to science might be grouped into the following categories: development and improvement of health services, including assistance in planning and operation of special health projects; the eradication and control of communicable diseases; collection and dissemination of epidemiological information and health research; improvement of food, drug, and biologics control; and education and training assistance programs. RAE–Royal Aircraft Establishment_---- U.K. Ministry of Defense

The Royal Aircraft Establishment, founded in 1918, gives technical advice on aircraft and collaborates with industry in developing flying equipment. Research programs are discussed and agreed upon with the aerospace industry through joint research committees. The establishment's current activities include supersonics, vertical takeoff; rocketry and guided missiles, automatic control and space science. SEATO—Southeast Asia Treaty Organization.

SEATO was created in 1954 with the basic provisions that member countries are to strengthen their free institutions, and to cooperate in the further development of economic measures, including technical

Page 19

assistance. SEATO's activities include the furnishing of assistance in the form of medical research laboratories. SIE-Science Information Exchange_----- Smithsonian Institution

The mission of SIE is to assist the planning and management of research activities supported by Government and non-Government institutions by promoting the exchange of information that concerns current research in the prepublication stage. It helps program directors and administrators to avoid unwarranted duplication and to determine the most advantageous distribution of research funds. It informs individual investigators about others currently working on problems in their special fields. SIPRI-Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

SIPRI was set up in 1966 by the Swedish Parliament as a foundation to study problems of peace and conflict with particular attention to the areas of disarmament and arms regulations. Some of the projects of past concern are: “Arms Trade with the Third World” and the "SIPRI Yearbook of World Armaments and Disarmament." SPR—Science Policy Research Division------- Library of Congress

SPR is a division of the CRS which handles inquiries on such subjects as: science policy, aviation and space technology, biological and medical issues, behavioral sciences, earth sciences, and other science and technology issues. UNESCO-United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organisation.

United Nations UNESCO was founded in 1945 as a U.N. satellite organization to encourage international cooperation in education, science, and culture. To attain this purpose, UNESCO advances the mutual knowledge and understanding of peoples and encourages international cooperation in all branches of intellectual activity. Science is a major part of the program. UNESCO coordinates research programs, aids nongovernmental international scientific organizations, and supports joint basic research programs. UNITAR–United Nations Institute for Training and Research...

United Nations UNITAR was founded in 1963 for the purpose of enhancing the effectiveness of the United Nations in achieving its major objectives. This task is accomplished primarily by providing training, by conducting research, by maintaining peace and security, and by promoting economic and social development. USAEC—United States Atomic Energy Commission.

U.S. Government

(see AEC) USAID_United States Agency for International Development.- Department of State

(see AID) WHO—World Health Organisation...

United Nations WHO became a specialized agency of the United Nations in 1948. It was created with the objective of attaining for all people the highest

Page 20

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND ASTRONAUTICS, U.S. HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

NINETY-THIRD CONGRESS

Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Astronautics

U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE

Page 21

COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND ASTRONAUTICS

HARLES

OLIN E. TEAGUE, Texas, Chairman KEN HECHLER, West Virginia

CHARLES A. MOSHER, Ohio JOHN W. DAVIS, Georgia

ALPHONZO BELL, California THOMAS N. DOWNING, Virginia

JOHN W. WYDLER, New York DON FUQUA, Florida

LARRY WINN, JR., Kansas JAMES W. SYMINGTON, Missouri

LOUIS FREY, JR., Florida RICHARD T. HANNA, California

BARRY M. GOLDWATER, JR., Callfornia WALTER FLOWERS, Alabama

MARVIN L. ESCH, Michigan ROBERT A. ROE, New Jersey

JOHN N. HAPPY CAMP, Oklahoma WILLIAM R. COTTER, Connecticut

JOHN B, CONLAN, Arizona MIKE MCCORMACK, Washington

STANFORD E. PARRIS, Virginia BOB BERGLAND, Minnesota

PAUL W. CRONIN, Massachusetts J. J. PICKLE, Texas

JAMES G. MARTIN, North Carolina GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California WILLIAM

M. KETCHUM, California DALE MILFORD, Texas RAY THORNTON, Arkansas BILL GUNTER, Florida

John L. SWIGERT, Jr., Executive Director

JAMES E, WILSON, Deputy Director
LEON F. DROZD, Jr., Chief Clerk

PRILIP B. YEAGER, Counsel
FRANK R. HAMMILL, Jr., Counsel
HAROLD A. GOULD, Technical Consultant
J. Thomas RATCAFORD, Science Consultant
WILLIAM G. WELLS, Jr., Technical Consultant

JOHN D. HOLMFELD, Srience Policy Consultant
THOMAS N. TATE, Technical Consultant and Counsel

L. KIRK HALL, Technical Specialist

CARL SWARTZ, Minority Staj
MICHAEL A. SUPERATA, Minority Staff
WILLIAM G. CARTER, Publications Clerk

MIKE MCCORMACK, Washington, Chairman DON FUQUA, Florida

BARRY M. GOLDWATER, JR., California JAMES W. SYMINGTON, Missouri

JOHN W. WYDLER, New York RICHARD T. HANNA, California

MARVIN L. ESCH, Michigan ROBERT A. ROE, New Jersey

JOHN B. CONLAN, Arizona BOB BERGLAND, Minnesota

STANFORD E. PARRIS, Virginia J. J. PICKLE, Texas

PAUL W, CRONIN, Massachusetts GEORGE E. BROWN, JR., California

JAMES G. MARTIN, North Carolina DALE MILFORD, Texas

WILLIAM M. KETCHUM, California RAY THORNTON, Arkansas BILL GUNTER, Florida

Page 22

Letter of transmittal.. Letter of submittal. Abstract.--- General geology of oil deposits... Domestic oil reserves and resources

Introduction. Reserve estimates

U.S. Geological Survey -- Measured reserves.. Indicated reserves. Inferred reserves. Undiscovered recoverable reserves. The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. American Petroleum Institute Reserve Committee.

Mobil Oil Co... Drilling technology - Recovery technology.

Introduction.. Primary recovery --- Secondary recovery.

Shooting--- Acidizing- Hydraulic fracturing- Gas cycling of condensate reservoirs.. Gas injection.. Waterflooding-

Steam injection. Tertiary recovery-

Carbonated waterflooding- Polymer waterflooding.. Alternate gas-water injection.. Wettability reversal.. Miscible fluid injection. Water miscible micellar injection.

Thermal oil recovery-- Comparison of secondary and tertiary recovery methods.. Domestic oil recovery projects.

Current projects.--

Planned projects... Federal research and development. Landmark assessments..

Energy R. & D. and National Progress.- Energy Research Needs. Energy Research and Development.

The Nation's Energy Future - Relevance to the energy crisis.. Summary-- Glossary of terms..

Page 23

DOMESTIC OIL RESERVES AND RESOURCES

Introduction

An oil resource is defined as a concentration of oil in the earth's crust in such condition that its extraction is currently or potentially feasible. An oil reserve is that portion of the oil resource which can be economically and legally extracted at the time of the determination.

To place reserve and resource estimations in proper prospective it is necessary to recognize that for the last 20 years the petroleum industry in the United States has been experiencing diminishing activity. During this period the percentage of the world crude oil reserves in the United States has decreased from 14 to 7 percent, although measured U.S. crude reserves have increased from 30 billion barrels to 48.3 billion barrels. The percentage of the world crude oil produced in th: Unite States has decreased from 44 to 19 percent while that of the Middle East has increased from 24 to 40 percent. Although the U.S. production has increased about 50 percent over the 20 year period, the domestic demand for crude oil has increased 70 percent. The U.S. has an equivalent 7 year supply of domestic crude oil, based

7 on the latest demand rate.

The total number of producing oil wells has declined during this 20 year period from 594,000 to 504,000 and the total number of wells drilled per year has decreased from 57,000 to 27,000. Of more consequence, the number of exploratory wells has decreased from 16,000 to 8,000 per year with a corresponding decrease of about 40 percent in total footage drilled. Unquestionably, the net effect of all the forces acting on petroleum exploration and production has not provided the impetus to develop a continuing reserve and productivity?

The finding of oil in the past has depended upon a complex industry which has been dominated by small business interests and individuals who may have owned a drilling rig, dealt in real estate holdings and mineral interests, or have been geological consultants or investors. The risks were high and the system was sensitive to economic factors, tax incentives, and governmental regulations, fluctuations of which would change the probabilities of financial return. Over the past 20 years the number of these small independents engaged in drilling and production operations has decreased from 40,000 to less than 4,000 and the total number of drilling rigs has decreased from 5,300 to 1,400.

In the most favorable economic and political climate, petroleum resource development requires at least a five year leadtime. Prospects must first be identified by geology and geophysics. Adequate financing and participation must be arranged, and lands must be leased. Drilling equipment must be acquired, and well drilling and completion must be accomplished. Production and transportation facilities must be installed, and product sales contracted.

1 Berg. R.R., Calhoun, J. C., and Whiting, R; L. Prognosis for Expanded U.S. Production of Crude Oll. Science, v. 184, 19 April 1974, p. 331. Ibid. p. 331.

All of the 1,400 U.S. drilling rigs are committed for the next 18 months but it is difficult for these rigs to operate efficiently because of the shortage of metal goods.used in drilling and production.3

A breakthrough in drilling technology could accelerate the petroleum discovery rate. Drilling technology has steadily improved, but there have been no major innovations in the past 50 years in spite of extensive drilling research. The conventional rotary drilling technique remains the most efficient and economical method of drilling a hole into the earth's crust. Reserve Estimates

U.S. Geological Survey.-On February 14, 1974, the U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior, released revised estimates of the Nation's crude oil resources and reserves. The estimates are lower than those previously issued by the Survey as new geophysical data have been acquired. It was emphasized that the figures were an attempt to appraise the unknown, and that this is particularly true of the U.S. Atlantic shelf where not a single hole has been drilled. It was also emphasized by the Survey that the effect of recent increases in price on reserves and resources have not been introduced into the calculations. The Survey pointed out that it is almost certain that secondary and tertiary recovery of oil will increase along with production from previously uneconomical sources if prices remain high.

The new Survey estimates show the following: Cumulative U.S. crude oil production through 1972 amounted to 115.27 billion barrels of oil; measured reserves of crude oil and natural gas liquids are 48.3 billion barrels; indicated and inferred reserves are estimated to be in the range of 25 to 45 billion barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids; and undiscovered recoverable resources are estimated to be in a range of 200 to 400 billion barrels of crude oil and natural gas liquids.

The February 14th Geological Survey estimates of crude oil and natural gas liquids production, reserves, and resources are shown in Table 1. A brief explanation of the categories provided in the table follows:

Measured reserves.-Identified resources from which an energy commodity can be economically extracted with existing technology, and whose location, quality, and quantity are known from geologic evidence supported by engineering evidence.

Indicated reserves. — Reserves based partly upon specific measurements, samples, or production data, and partly from projection for a reasonable distance on geologic evidence.

Inferred reserves.—Those reserves based upon broad geologic knowledge for which quantitative measurements are not available. Such reserves are those estimated to be recoverable in the future as a result of extensions, revisions of estimates, and deeper drilling in known fields. In Table 1 indicated and inferred reserves are undifferentiated.

TABLE 1.-U.S. PETROLEUM RESOURCES, ONSHORE AND OFFSHORE TO WATER DEPTH OF 200 METERS

CRUDE OIL AND NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS

[In billions of barrels)

Undiscovered recoverable reserves.-Those quantities that may be reasonably expected to exist in favorable geologic settings, but which have not yet been identified by drilling. Exploration will permit the reclassification of such resources to the reserves category.

The American Association of Petroleum Geologists. In 1971 the American Association of Petroleum Geologists in collaboration with the National Petroleum Council undertook an extensive study of future potential oil and gas reserves in the United States. The study pointed out that the geology of the entire United States, including the continental shelf and slope, has been studied by petroleum geologists to determine its petroleum potential. The area most favorable for new oil and gas discoveries covers approximately 8.3 million square kilometers and contains approximately 25 million cubic kilometers of sedimentary rock above either the crystalline basement or 9,144 meters.

This large area has not been explored adequately. Many highpotential locations for new oil and gas discoveries remain, judging from the geology and the extent of current exploration, particularly in parts of Alaska, California, Colorado, Louisiana, Mississippi, Montana, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming; and in parts of the offshore of Alaska, California, Louisiana, and Texas.

The Atlantic, Florida, and Alaska continental shelves and the entire continental slope have barely been drilled; and other prospective areas and depths on land and on the continental shelf remain largely unexplored.

Estimates of potential crude oil reserves, exclusive of known reserves, range from 227 to 436 billion barrels of oil in place. The potential probably exceeds the mean of 332 billion barrels. Approximately 32 percent of the oil in place could be recoverable at present recovery rates. The rate of recovery, however, ultimately may reach 60 percent."

American Petroleum Institute Reserve Committee.-The American Petroleum Institute reported a sharp drop in proved domestic oil reserves during 1973. Issued January 1, 1974, the report notes that the surge in drilling has yet to be translated into reserve additions on a scale capable of offsetting heavy production rates.

The Institute reported that crude oil reserves were down 1.040 billion barrels to 35.3 billion, after subtracting net production of 3.185 billion barrels. About 80 percent of the decline was accounted for by Texas and Louisiana. A total of 5.144 billion barrels of indicated reserves were reported. Indicated reserves are defined by the American Petroleum Institute as those economically available by fluid injection. Total liquid hydrocarbons proven reserves were down 1.4 billion barrels to 41.755 billion barrels of reserve.

Productive capacity of crude oil was down 600,000 barrels per day to 9.7 million barrels per day for the sixth consecutive decrease since the American Petroleum Institute began estimating such figures in 1967. Productive capacity is the estimated amount of crude oil that can be

Page 24

TABLE 3-GAS-LIQUIDS RESERVES

(Thousand barrels)

Alabama Alaska Arkansas California 2

San Joaquin Basin. Coastal Region 2

Los Angeles Basin 2 Colorado. Florida Illinois. Indiana.. Kansas Kentucky. Louisiana ?

North.

South 2 Michigan.. Mississippi Montana Nebraska New Mexico

Northwest.

South North Dakota. Ohio.. Oklahoma. Pennsylvania Texas: 2

District 1. District 2 District 32 District 42 District 5. District 6.. District 7-B. District 7-C. District 8

District 8-A.

District 9.

District 10. Utah West Virginia. Wyoming...

27, 606

442 7,778 126, 726 67, 174 29, 668 29, 884 16, 079 8, 800 814

14 393, 082

46, 782 2, 135, 837

107, 282 2,028, 555

19, 026 14, 620 4, 413

1,630 502, 787 270, 913 231, 874 45, 367

+16.986

-99 -2, 734 -20, 763 -7,004 -4, 452 -9, 307 +4,774 -5, 493 -814

-14 -5,784

-1, 458 - 143, 300

-20, 458 - 122, 842 +6,020

-530 -788

--338 -89, 607 -15, 415 –74, 192 +7, 978

0 -46, 059

-76 -61, 440

+9, 768 +22, 289 -105, 530 +66, 542

-97 -28, 656 +9, 240 +2, 102 -21, 620

+6,584 + 10, 182 -32, 244 +18, 542

+671 -7, 526

335, 161

735 2, 891, 583

16, 742 122, 029 570, 324 424, 019

73, 358 384, 345

52, 921 118,506 475, 338 258, 147

68, 280 327,574 34, 002 82, 084 91, 191

The price of new oil has been freed. Yet, the American Petroleum Institute estimates for January 1, 1974, were based on the former 1972 price of $3.40 per barrel. The editorial pointed out that in ignoring the strong oil-recovery incentive of this 50 percent boost in basic price and the far greater incentive promised by higher prices for new oil, the committee reported another sharp decline in oil reserves for 1973 Had the higher prices been considered as a factor, it is probable, in the opinion of the editorial, that the reserve decline would have been shaved substantially or even eliminated.

The editorial called for a new survey to recalculate the Nation's entire recoverable reserves using a higher price base as an object lesson on the power of increased prices to elicit new supplies. 8

Mobil Oil Company.—There is also controversy over whether undiscovered oil exists domestically in amounts great enough for the economic rule of price-supply elasticity to operate (for increased prices

Page 25

RECOVERY TECHNOLOGY

og) Introduction

Typically, oil wells are removed from production long before all of the in place petroleum has been recovered. The fraction of in place oil that will flow unaided from its rock matrix into a well varies widely. The amount recovered may range from as little as 5 percent to as much as 80 percent, but the average is about 20 percent and is known as primary recovery. The factors which determine the percentage of primary recovery are the energy (pressure) of the oil reservoir, the viscosity (resistance to flow) of the oil, and the permeability of the reservoir rock.

One obvious way to increase oil supplies is to recover more of the known oil from existing oil pools. Secondary and tertiary recovery methods are used for this purpose. Improved recovery may be achieved by supplementing or restoring the original natural reservoir pressure, reducing the oil viscosity and capillarity, or increasing the permeability of the rock. Through such measures, the fraction of oil economically recoverable in place can be increased to as much as 50 to 80 percent. Tertiary recovery refers in general to recovering part of the oil left after the secondary recovery process of water flooding. Success of tertiary recovery operations are dependent upon the amount of oil remaining after secondary recovery injection and its distribution in the reservoir rock.

Unrecovered oil may be left within individual rock pores, within clusters of rock pores containing relatively more oil than adjacent portions of the formation, and in bypassed volumes of the reservoir.

When the unrecovered oil within the pores is disconnected, it is trapped by capillary forces and is called residual cil. The capillary forces in general correspond to pressure differences across the curved interface between two immiscible liquids, and are affected by the interfacial tension of the liquids, the curvature of their interface, and the wettability of the pore surface. Since capillary forces control residual oil saturation, the elimination of these forces is the prime objective of the more sophisticated oil recovery processes.

A few of the tertiary recovery methods incorporate a substance in the injection water which, in effect, improves the performance of a conventional waterflood. Other successful methods involve injecting a slug or small bank of one fluid and driving this slug through the reservoir with another fluid.

The first material is usually small in volume, but high in cost. The objective of the active ingredient, whether a solvent or a hot zone, is to mobilize and push forward the oil that remains in the pore spaces. This in turn is propelled from injection wells to production wells by a drive fluid such as water or a selected gas. Usually each bank of fluid is driven by a fluid having lesser ability to flow. This allows for maximizing the displacement efficiency as well as forcing the fluids to spread out, thus increasing the sweep efficiency or volume of rock contacted.

Page 26

Secondary Recovery

Shooting.-In 1860 Harry H. Dennis exploded a shot of black powder alongside a string of tools stuck in a water well he was drilling. The shot was for the purpose of loosening the tools, but there was a noticeable increase in water production following the shot. The results obtained may have been responsible for William Reed's experiments in 1863 in shooting three of his oil wells. Reed lost interest in the technique when the shots failed to increase production.

In 1865 a well near Titusville, Pennsylvania, was experimentally shot with two gunpowder torpedoes. After the explosions the well began to flow oil and paraffin. The oil operators remained skeptical of shooting for fear that the explosion would cause the hole to cave and destroy the well's productiveness.

In 1866 a torpedo was exploded in a dry hole and the shot increased production from zero to 20 barrels of oil per day. A month later a second torpedo was exploded which brought production up to 80 barrels per day. This established the torpedo beyond question, and there was an immediate demand for shooting throughout the Titusville area.

Later, liquid nitroglycerin replaced gunpowder and in 1926, during the early development of the Permian Basin in West Texas, it was the general practice to use liquid nitroglycerin for shooting oil wells. Thereafter, there was a gradual change-over to the use of solidified nitroglycerin.

The formation to be shot had to be directly exposed to the explosion and any formation, other than an unconsolidated one, was considered a prospect for shooting to increase production. The shooting produced an enlargement of the hole and also a lot of cavings which had to be recovered. As time went on, safer methods of detonating the shots were developed, as premature explosions were a hazard when using nitroglycerin.

At the present time, shooting has largely been replaced by more modern recovery methods.

Acidizing.–Although acid treatment of oil wells was attempted as early as 1895, the process was only infrequently used for the next 30 years. In 1932, the Pure Oil Company and Dow Chemical Company successfully stimulated several limestone formation oil wells in Michigan with hydrochloric acid treatments.

As word of these tests spread, interest in acidizing to improve well productivity increased rapidly, and several companies were organized to provide the service commercially.

The success of acid stimulation of limestones raised interest as to the effectiveness of similar treatments in sandstones. In 1933 the Halliburton Company pumped a mixture of hydrochloric and hydrofluoric acids into a well in Texas. The results discouraged for many years further work with hydrofluoric acid for well stimulation. The sandstone formation disintegrated, causing a sand problem in the wellbore and a decline in well productivity. This led to the conclusion that the permeability of the sandstone formation was plugged by acid reaction products.

Since its first commercial use in 1932, hydrochloric acid has remained the primary acid treating agent for oil wells. It is effective and has a relatively low cost. Although the basic chemistry of acid treatment has been established for many years, the economics and effectiveness of each individual acid treatment is dependent upon the local condition in the borehole and in the formation.